National bureau of economic research business cycle dating committee art auction house liquidating new state york
In that month, a number of key indicators of real economic activity, including industrial production and nonfarm employment, reached their lowest points since the peak at the beginning of 1980.
The July trough was also consistent with the behavior of real GNP, which reached its low point in the second quarter of 1980.
The decision is generally based upon the examination of four series, gross domestic product, income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.
It's important to note that this is an attempt to identify the trough of the recovery.
The 1980 recession was also the first recession since World War II in which real GNP contracted for only a single quarter.
The committee concluded that the depth and breadth of the contraction in early 1980 clearly marked it as a recession, in spite of its unusual brevity.
If the apparent turnaround stalls, or if we regress a bit, it won't be as certain that the bottom is behind us.Both can argue that although the recovery is slower than we'd hoped and expected, the past stimulus helped us turn the corner and at this point we've done all that we can do. As I've made clear here in past posts, I think that's a mistake, there's still more that can and should be done for labor markets in particular -- I fear stagnation is ahead and we need to take insurance against that outcome now -- but this announcement makes such action less likely.CAMBRIDGE, July 08 -- At a meeting today in Cambridge, (AA), the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research identified July 1980 as the most recent trough in the U. Some monthly indicators reached troughs a month earlier, in June, but the committee concluded that the bulk of the evidence favored July as the overall trough in economic activity.I should have inquired on this point sooner, but life got in the way.Here is Jeremy's latest estimate using data through June 2010: Notice that although his estimates of the date of the end of the recession is very near where the NBER called it, there is a worrisome recent uptick in the estimates.
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Whether or not we stay near the trough for an extended period or move gradually but consistently back to full employment is an open question, but I don't think we can discount the stagnation outcome.